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The US researchers halted their work for 60 days voluntarily while the issue was discussed (article @ nti.org). This comes out of fear of the consequences should the virus be released accidentally (page @ the-scientist.com) and fears of the use of the information by would-be bio-terrorists or governments’ bio-weapons programs. The popular magazine New Scientist includes the opinion that worries over such bioweapons research is Chicken Little behavior (pun intended) (article @ slate.com).
New research, (article @ the-scientist.com, consisting of a meta-analysis of 29 studies performed to discover infection rates, strongly suggests that death rates are not as high as previously thought by many. This is good news. Does that mean we should release the research done on the mutated H5N1 strain? The WHO, which supports researchers’ freedom, according to Maggie Fox of National Journal, says we should, but not yet (article @ nti.org).
How much has the measured death rate dropped? Researchers quoted in the Scientist article say it is hard to know. A researcher at the University of Maryland said the research “doesn’t fundamentally change the concern” regarding an avian-flu pandemic in humans, should the virus mutate similarly to that created in the halted experiments.
There are things to say about the new research. First, it is a meta-analysis. Pseudo-scientists love to use meta-analyses to support their ideas. Dr. Steven Novella, neurologist at Yale and skeptic extraordinaire, has pointed out numerous times on his podcast, The Skeptics’ Guide To the Universe, and on his Neurologica Blog (article @ the-ness.com) the scientific problems with using meta-analyses. Not all studies are equal, and it is risky to lump together studies without properly assessing each for its soundness. Psi proponents, such as Dean Radin in The Conscious Universe, have used meta-analyses to support the idea that people can influence electrical random-number generators with whatever force or energy they wish to allege. Vaccine-MMR linkers (“anti-vaxers”), noted and dangerous kooks, have used meta-analyses to support their position, that the MMR vaccine causes autism. Meta-analyses should not be greeted without carrying a grain of salt.
The Scientist article says that false negatives and false positives for H5N1 infection cloud results. What if the false negatives have led to an underestimation of the number of deaths from H5N1, and false positives have led to an overestimation of the number of infections? I’m going to guess the last word is the usual, “Further research needed.”